رابطه عدم قطعیت با نگهداشت وجه نقد و موجودی کالا

کرمی, غلامرضا; بیک بشرویه, سلمان; نظری, سعیده; سماوات, میلاد

doi:10.22099/jaa.2023.46531.2297

رابطه عدم قطعیت با نگهداشت وجه نقد و موجودی کالا

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

¹ دانشیار گروه حسابداری، دانشکده مدیریت، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران.

² استادیار گروه حسابداری، دانشکده مدیریت، دانشگاه تهران، ایران

³ دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد گروه حسابداری، دانشکده مدیریت، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران.

⁴ دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشدگروه حسابداری، دانشکده مدیریت، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران.

10.22099/jaa.2023.46531.2297

چکیده

مدیریت سطح موجودی کالا و وجه نقد همواره یکی از پیچیده‌ترین و دشوراترین تصمیمات مدیریت در سطح شرکت و به تبع آن در سطح کل اقتصاد است. اقتصاد ایران در طی سالهای اخیر به واسطه وجود مسائل مختلفی از قبیل تحریم های اقتصادی و سیاسی، تورم فزآینده، تحرکات نظامی منطقه خاورمیانه، بروز همه گیری کووید 19 و... همواره با عدم قطعیت در سطح اقتصاد کلان مواجه بوده است. هدف این پژوهش بررسی اثر این عدم قطعیت بر نگهداشت وجه نقد و موجودی کالا است. در این پژوهش که در بازه سال‌های 1390 الی 1399 انجام شده است، برای سنجش عدم قطعیت از شاخص جهانی عدم قطعیت (WUI) که برای 143 کشور از جمله ایران به شکل مجزا محاسبه و ارائه شده استفاده گردیده است. نتایج نشان دهنده رابطه‌ای معکوس بین عدم قطعیت و نگهداشت وجه نقد و نگهداشت موجودی کالا بود. با توجه به ادبیات، می‌توان استدلال کرد که وجود رابطه معکوس بین شاخص عدم قطعیت و نگهداشت وجه نقد به این دلیل است که مدیران شرایط بوجود آورنده عدم قطعیت را بلند مدت تلقی ننموده و یا سایر مسیرهای سرمایه‌‌گذاری را انتخاب می‌نمایند. وجود رابطه معکوس در خصوص نگهداشت موجودی کالا را نیز می‌توان به آسیب دیدن مسیر های تأمین مالی هنگام افزایش عدم قطعیت نسبت داد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

The relationship of Uncertainty with cash and inventory holdings

نویسندگان [English]

Gholamreza Karami ¹
salman Beik Boshroueyh ²
Saeideh nazari ³
Milad Samavat ⁴

¹ Department of Accounting, Faculty of Management, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.

² Accounting, Faculty of Management, Tehran university, Iran

³ Department of Accounting, Faculty of Management, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.

⁴ Department of Accounting, Faculty of Management, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.

چکیده [English]

Previous research has shown that in periods of uncertainty, companies keep more cash to meet their unforeseen contingencies. In fact, uncertainty causes companies to develop non-productive practices such as cash holding. In fact, during periods of uncertainty, senior managers show a more homogeneous behavior because they are unsuccessful in predicting company-specific information, and they cannot necessarily make decisions according to the company's needs. Of course, in this regard, whether short-term or long-term, uncertainty is evaluated, and also the source of uncertainty is effective in the type of managers' reaction.
Also, the existing literature shows that the uncertainty has an effect on the maintenance of the inventory, due to both the increase in information asymmetry, which will cause disruption in the financing of companies, and because it creates fluctuations in the future cash flows of the companies. This allows the managers with uncertainty about future liquidity to decide whether to increase their inventory.
In general, uncertainty is a complex issue that, depending on the source of uncertainty, may have different effects on the management decision-making in different fields, which makes the research in this field attractive and interesting.

2- Hypothesis
According to the literature, the research hypotheses include:
Hypothesis No. 1: The relationship between global uncertainty index and cash holding is positive and significant.
Hypothesis No. 2: The relationship between global uncertainty index and inventory maintenance is negative and significant.

3- Methods
This research was conducted on the companies admitted to the Tehran Stock Exchange during the years 2012 to 2021. Companies whose financial year ends on March 29, have not changed their financial year during the research period, and its information is available. Also, due to the nature of the dependent variable (inventory of goods and cash), banks, insurance institutions, holding companies, and investment companies are excluded from the statistical sample of this research. According to the explanations provided, a total of 112 companies (including 1120 observations) were used to conduct this research, their information was collected from the Comprehensive Database Of All Listed Companies (CODAL) database and also in order to extract the data of the World Uncertainty Index (WUI) from Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED). Of course, it should be noted that this index is updated every three months on the https://worlduncertaintyindex.com/. In this research, we have implemented Arellano-Bover/Blundell-Bond method, which includes the endogeneity between variables in the model.

4- Results
The results of the hypothesis test indicate the existence of a negative relationship between uncertainty and cash and inventory holding. In other words, with increasing uncertainty, managers keep a smaller amount of these two assets when deciding on the levels of inventory and cash.

5- Discussion and Conclusion
The existence of a negative relationship between uncertainty and cash holding can be explained as Wright (2015) using two measures of short-term uncertainty and long-term uncertainty found that cash holding has a positive correlation with the company's long-term uncertainty. But there is a negative correlation with the short-term and long-term uncertainty of the market, probably managers in Iran do not consider the issues that cause uncertainty as long-term and keep less cash. Of course, it should be kept in mind that as Baum et al. (2008) and Chakraborty et al. (2017) believed, the source of uncertainty can also be decisive in this regard because it can affect the decision-making of managers in different industries in a different way. On the other hand, our results regarding the existence of an inverse relationship between uncertainty and inventory holding support the research of Zeng et al. (2020). In this regard, it can be argued that the uncertainty leads the companies to reduce the inventory; probably the uncertainty, by tightening the financing conditions and increasing the information asymmetry in the financial markets, lead the managers to reduce the inventory level. On the other hand, the results indicate that the managers in Iran convert the funds resulting from the decrease in the inventory into assets other than cash and vice versa. Now, the question can be, to which source the flow of these resources in Iran is likely to be allocated?

Keywords: Cash Holding, Inventory Holding, World Uncertainty Index.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

Cash holding
inventory holding
World Uncertainty Index
dynamic panel

مراجع

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