حساسیت بازده به تغییرات عدم اطمینان ناشی از سود

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

چکیده

چکیده
محتوای اطلاعات صورت‌های مالی با استفاده از آنتروپی اندازه‌گیری می‌شود. توان محیط اطلاعاتی را می‌توان با استفاده از نسبت تکرار آنتروپی مثبت به منفی اندازه‌گیری کرد و باوجوداین‌که حقیقت ارقام به‌آسانی قابل تصدیق نیست، اما نسبت عدم اطمینان، پیش‌بینی عملکرد شرکت را امکان‌پذیر می‌کند. فرض می‌شود نسبت عدم اطمینان سود حسابداری با بازده سالانه‌ی شرکت رابطه‌ی منفی داشته باشد و شرکت‌هایی که نسبت عدم اطمینان پایین‌تری دارند، بازده سالانه‌ی بالاتری را تجربه می‌کنند. برای آزمون فرضیه‌های تحقیق، با توجه به این محدودیت که شرکت‌ها نباید در بازه‌ی زمان انتخابی زیان‌ده باشند، اطلاعات مالی 960 سال شرکت مورد آزمون قرار گرفت. یافته‌های تحقیق نشان می‌دهد بین نسبت عدم اطمینان ناشی از سود حسابداری و بازده سالانه‌ی شرکت رابطه‌ی منفی و معناداری وجود دارد.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Sensitivity to returns due to uncertainty changes of earnings

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mohammadali Aghaei
  •  Mehdi  Khalili
چکیده [English]

Introduction       
       The information content perspective stresses accounting’s role as a source of information. To provide information means it is possible to become better informed, to learn something we did not yet know. In turn, being able to become better informed means we were initially less informed, that uncertainty was present. Uncertainty is the opposite of certainty lack of complete foreknowledge, a setting in which there is ambiguity measure on the set of possible states. Probability means some states are more likely to occur than other states, just as others may be equally likely. Being serious about information is no easy task. Developing the skill to understand and be facile with information issues requires patience and effort. Increasing the probability and reaching  certainty requires to have an adequate information content.  The purpose of the present paper is to provide a formal definition of information using concepts from Shannon's influential paper and to develop a measure of the information content of a message. Throughout, we stress the difference between information and knowledge (i.e. all information is knowledge but not all knowledge is information). We then argue that the financial accounting process can really be formalized as a communication system where information can be determined as having been transmitted when uncertainty regarding a future probability state-space has changed. Furthermore, we demonstrate analytically a way in which Shannon's entropy measure can be used to determine the information content of an accounting report (e.g. financial statement). Finally, we explore the measure empirically to see what insights might be gained.
 
Research Hypothesis
       We hypothesize that uncertainty rate of accounting earnings has a negative correlation with annual return of firms, and firms which have low uncertainty rate have a greater annual return and firms which have high uncertainty rate experience lower degree of annual return. This paper is trying to collect evidence to verify this fact.
 
Methods
       The research method used in this article is multivariate regression analysis of the impact of annual return and uncertainty ratios. Based on the previous discussion and assuming q(t) adequately captures the strength of the information environment surrounding each company. 
 
Results
       Results of statistic test of research hypothesis regarding the relationship between annual return and uncertainty ratios showed that this hypothesis was approved, in a way that it has been assessed to be negative.
 
Discussion and Conclusion
       The findings of the hypothesis test confirm this hypothesis stipulating the existence of an association between annual return and uncertainty ratios, so this relationship is negative. Regarding the purpose of the research which is examining the relationship between annual return and uncertainty ratio, it is impossible to compare the results of this hypothesis with the results of other studies. In this hypothesis, the impact of controlled variables such as firm size, the ratio of market to book value were also tested. The results show a positive and an insignificant impact of firm size, while there is a positive and significant impact between the ratio of market to book value and annual return.
  
 

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Information Theory
  • Accounting Information
  • Uncertainty
  • Entropy
آقایی، محمدعلی و کوک، حجت. (1374). آنتروپی وضعیت مالی با اندازه‌ی تغییرات مورد انتظار در ترکیب ترازنامه. بررسی حسابداری و حسابرسی.8 (12و13):  44-31.
انواری رستمی، علی‌اصغر و کیانی، آیدین. (1394). بررسی نقش عدم اطمینان محیطی در رفتار هزینه‌ها؛ شواهدی از شرکت‌های پذیرفته‌شده در بورس اوراق بهادار تهران. مجله‌ی علمی پژوهشی پیشرفت‌های حسابداری، 69: 57-33.
باقرزاده، سعید. (1384). بررسی عوامل مؤثر بر بازده مورد انتظار سهام شرکت‌های پذیرفته‌شده در بورس اوراق بهادار تهران؛ پاره‌ای از شواهد تجربی. مجله‌ی تحقیقات مالی، 19: 63-25.
دستگیر، محسن و آرمات، بهاره (1392). رابطه‌ی بین عدم اطمینان‌های محیطی و بازده جاری سهام. پژوهش‌های حسابداری مالی و حسابرسی، 19: 125-103.
دستگیر، محسن و خدابنده، رامین (1382). ارتباط بین محتوای اطلاعاتی اجزای اصلی صورت جریان وجه نقد با بازده سهام. مجله‌ی علمی پژوهشی پیشرفت‌های حسابداری، 38: 112-100
 رهنمای رودپشتی، فریدون و همکاران (1389). محتوای اطلاعاتی سود و چرخه‌ی نوسانات سود و جریان‌های نقدی. تحقیقات حسابداری و حسابرسی، 8:  22-1
 قائمی ، محمد حسین و رحیم پور ، محمد و نوذری، روحی ، بهزاد(1389). اعلان سودهای فصلی و عدم تقارن اطلاعاتی . مجله‌ی علمی پژوهشی پیشرفت‌های حسابداری، 59: 50-31
نمازی، محمد و زارع، بهروز (1383). کاربرد تئوری اطلاعات در تعیین ریسک سامانمند مطالعه‌ی موردی: شرکت‌های پذیرفته‌شده در بورس اوراق بهادار. بررسی حسابداری و حسابرسی، 1(35): 100-79.
انگلیسی
Bamber, L. S. (1986). The information content of annual earnings releases: A trading volume approach. Journal of Accounting Research, 24(1), 40-56.
Beaver, W. H. (1968). The information content of annual earnings announcements. Journal of Accounting Research, 6,67-92.
Beaver, W., Lambert, R., & Morse, D. (1980). The information content of security prices. Journal of Accounting and Economics, 2(1), 3-28.
Bedford, N. M., & Baladouni, V. (1962). A communication theory approach to accountancy. The Accounting Review, 37(4), 650-659.
Bernhardt, I., & Copeland, R. M. (1970). Some problems in applying an information theory approach to accounting aggregation. Journal of Accounting Research, 8(1),95-98.
Bowen, R. M., Burgstahler, D., & Daley, L.A. (1987). The incremental information content of accrual versus cash flows. Accounting Review, 62(4), 723-747.
Christensen, J. A., & Demski, J. S. (2002). Accounting Theory. Boston, MA: McGraw-Hill/ Irwin.
Cover, T. M., & Thomas, J. A. (2006). Elements of Information Theory. New York: Wiley Interscience.
Dontoh, A. & Ronen, J. (1993). Information content of accounting announcements. Accounting Review, 68(4), 857-869.
Faghih, N., & Namazi, M. (1998). Applying Shannon's information theory to the measurement and analysis of financial statement. Journal of Discrete Mathematical Sciences & Cryptography, 15(1),49-62.
Freeman, R. N., & Tse, S. (1989). The multiperiod information content of accounting earnings: Confirmation and contradictions of previous earnings reports. Journal of Accounting Research, 27, 49-79.
Gibbs, J. W. (1978). On the Equilibrium of Heterogeneous Substances. New Haven: The academy.
Goel, A. M., & Thakor, A. V. (2003). Why do firms smooth earnings? Journal of Business, 76(1), 151-191.
Gosh, D., & Olsen, L. (2009). Environmental uncertainty and managers' use ofdiscretionary accruals. Accounting, Organizations & Society, 34, 188-205.
Habib, A., Hossain, M., & Jiang, H. (2011). Environmental uncertainty and the market pricing of earnings smoothing. Journal of Advances in Accounting Incorporating Advances in international Accounting, 27, 256-265.
Hadi, Mahdi M. (2006). The value-relevance of income levels and components reported. International Research Journal of Finance and Economics,4, 133-142.
Hayek, F. A. (1945). The use of knowledge in society. The American Economic Review, 35(4), 519-530.
Hirshleifer, J. (1973). Where are we in the theory of information? The American Economic Review, 63 (2), 31-39.
Ingram, R. W. (1978). An investigation of the information content of (certain) social responsibility disclosures. Journal of Accounting Research, 16(2), 270-285.
Jaynes, E. T. (2003). Probability Theory: The Logic of Science. Cambridge University Press.
Ross, J. F. (2016).The information content of accounting reports: An information theory perspective. Information7(3), 1-23.
Shannon, C. (1948). A mathematical theory of communication. Bell System Technincal Journal, 27, 379-423.
Theil, H. (1969). On the use of information theory concepts in the analysis of financial statements. Management Science, 15(9), 459-480.