بررسی واکنش سرمایه گذاران نسبت به اعلام سود سالانه شرکت ها با در نظر گرفتن شرایط عدم اطمینان بازار و عدم اطمینان اطلاعات شرکت

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری حسابداری، دانشگاه اصفهان

2 دانشیارحسابداری، گروه حسابداری، دانشگاه اصفهان

3 استادیار اقتصاد، گروه اقتصاد،دانشگاه اصفهان

چکیده

در شرایط عدم اطمینان، درباره وضعیت آتی شرکتها و بازار سرمایه ابهام وجود دارد. در این شرایط ورود علائم اطلاعاتی مانند اعلام سود می تواند عدم اطمینان را کاهش داده و به تجدید نظر در باورهای پیشین سرمایه گذاران منجر شود. با این حال، علائم اطلاعاتی دقیق تر تاثیر قوی تری بر واکنش سرمایه گذاران دارد. هدف پژوهش حاضر بررسی واکنش سرمایه گذاران نسبت به اعلام سود شرکت ها با در نظر گرفتن شرایط عدم اطمینان بازار و عدم اطمینان اطلاعات شرکت ها می باشد. بدین منظور نمونه ای شامل 162 شرکت پذیرفته شده در بورس اوراق بهادار تهران در دوره زمانی 1384 تا 1394 انتخاب گردید.فرضیه ها با استفاده از داده های ترکیبی و روش رگرسیون بررسی و آزمون شدند. نتایج نشان می دهد زمانی که در شرایط وجود عدم اطمینان بالا در بازار، واکنش سرمایه گذاران به اعلام سود شرکت ها بیشتر است. ولی زمانی که عدم اطمینان بالایی در اطلاعات شرکت ها وجود دارد این واکنش کاهش می یابد. بررسی همزمان عدم اطمینان بازار و عدم اطمینان اطلاعات بر واکنش سرمایه گذاران به اعلام سود نیز نشان می دهد اگرچه زمانی که عدم اطمینان بالایی در اطلاعات شرکت ها وجود دارد، واکنش سرمایه گذاران به اعلام سود کاهش می یابد ولی برخلاف انتظار، ضریب سود غیرمنتظره در شرایط عدم اطمینان بالای بازار کمتر از ضریب مربوطه در شرایط عدم اطمینان پایین بازار است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Investigating Investors' Reaction to firms’ Annual Earnings Announcement with considering the market uncertainty and information uncertainty

نویسندگان [English]

  • Narges Hamidian 1
  • Mehdi Arabsalehi 2
  • Hadi Amiri 3
1 P.h.D Student of Accounting, Faculty of Administrative Sciences and Economics, University of Isfahan, Iran
2 Associate Prof. of Accounting, Faculty of Administrative Sciences and Economics, University of Isfahan, Iran
3 Assistant Prof. of Economy, Faculty of Administrative Sciences and Economics, University of Isfahan, Iran
چکیده [English]

Introduction
There is an ambiguity about future state of the firms and capital market in conditions of uncertainty. In such a situation, the arrival of any information signal such as earnings announcement may reduce uncertainty leading to a revision of the previous beliefs of investors. Uncertainty could be divided into two groups: market uncertainty and information uncertainty. Investors’ reaction to earnings announcement may be different in these two situations. Under high market uncertainty, firms’ earnings announcement as an information signal may have a greater impact on investors' beliefs and, as a result, leads to more investors’ reaction to firms’ earnings announcement. However, more accurate information signals have a stronger impact on investors' beliefs. In other words, there is under reaction to earnings announcement, when announced earnings contain high uncertainty. Therefore, this study attempts to investigate investors’ reaction to earnings announcement with regards to market and information uncertainty. In addition, this study examines simultaneous effect of these two types of uncertainty on the investors 'reaction to earnings announcement.
Hypotheses
According to the literature, the research hypotheses include:
H1: Under high market uncertainty, investors’ reaction to earnings announcement is higher than low market uncertainty.
H2: Under high information uncertainty, investors’ reaction to earnings announcement is less than low information uncertainty.
H3: Investors’ reaction to earnings announcement under market uncertainty decreases with an increase in the level of information uncertainty.
 
Methods
In this study, in order to calculate the variables and test the hypotheses, required data was collected from the audited financial statements and its footnotes of listed companies in the Tehran Stock Exchange and the existing databases including “Rahavard Novin” and “Codal”. The sample of this study consists of 162 listed companies in Tehran Stock Exchange from 2005 to 2015. Market uncertainty was measured by the standard deviation of daily market returns during the one month prior to the firms’ earnings announcement. Information uncertainty was calculated by two criteria including quality information and cash flows volatility based on matched-firm design. Panel data method and Wald test were used to estimate models and test of hypotheses, respectively.
 
Results
Results showed the higher market uncertainty (compared to lower uncertainty), the more investors' response to firms’ earnings announcements. Results also showed, the higher information uncertainty (compared to lower uncertainty), the less investors' response to firms’ earnings announcements. Moreover simultaneous analysis of the "market and information" uncertainty on the investors' reactions to earnings announcements showed although investors' responses to earnings announcements decrease on the high information uncertainty situation, yet unexpectedly, the coefficient of unexpected earnings in the high market uncertainty is less than its coefficient in the low market uncertainty.
 
 
 
Discussion and Conclusion
Previous studies often focus on the market uncertainty or the information uncertainty. There are few studies that examine the simultaneous effect of these two types of uncertainty. Therefore, the aim of this study was investigating investors’ reaction to earnings announcement considering both market and information uncertainty. In the first hypothesis, we investigated investors’ reaction to earnings announcement, when market uncertainty is high. Results showed, investors show more reaction to earnings announcement under high market uncertainty. Therefore, the first hypothesis is not rejected. Results of the second hypothesis indicated when firms’ information such as accounting earnings is ambiguous and uncertain, there are less investors’ reaction to earnings announcement and the second hypothesis is also not rejected. Moreover, simultaneous analysis of both uncertainty on the investors' reaction showed although investors' responses to earnings announcements decrease by an increase in the information uncertainty, but unexpectedly, investors show less reaction, when there is a high market uncertainty. It may be due to behavioral bias or lack of investor knowledge for analyzing information. Therefore, the third hypothesis is rejected.
  

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Unexpected earnings
  • Cumulative Abnormal Return
  • Market uncertainty
  • Firms' Information uncertainty

مراجع

 
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  • تاریخ دریافت: 02 آبان 1396
  • تاریخ بازنگری: 21 بهمن 1396
  • تاریخ پذیرش: 18 بهمن 1396

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