تعیین شاخص‌های مناسب برای تحلیل وضعیت شرکت‌ها و انتخاب شرکت مناسب برای سرمایه‌گذاری

 
Journal of Accounting Advances (J.A.A)
Vol. 7, No. 1, 2015, Ser. 68/3
 
 
Extended Abstract
 
Determining Appropriate Criteria for Company Analysis and Selecting Appropriate Company for Investment
 
Dr. Abbas Abbasi              Iman Estejab            Dr. Ali Mohammadi
Shiraz University
 
Introduction
Stock Exchange holds a special place in countries’ financial system and many investors tend to invest (buy and sell) in this market; however, it is considered one of the most high-risk markets. Finding a good place for investment, especially in exchange market, has always been one of the most stressful decisions for investors to make. In such a market, investors who analyze the market with a more accurate vision and buy good shares are successful. To do this kind of analysis, employing a good and powerful investment model is helpful. This study is an effort to determine factors that investors must consider in order to have safe and successful investments. To find the factors, experts’ views are considered. In order to correctly model the conditions of uncertainty, fuzzy Delphi method (FDM) was employed.
 
Research Question
In this study, attempts have been made to address the following question:
-   What are the appropriate factors to evaluate and compare companies?
 
Methodology
In this study, data was collected through a questionnaire. In order to develop the questionnaire, a list of evaluation factors was gathered from literatures. Nineteen factors were found and put into the questionnaire. Then, experts [4 faculty members and 8 official Stock Exchange specialists (Brokers)] were asked to evaluate the factors by rating them from high to low; they were also asked to add to the list of evaluation factors if necessary. The questionnaire provided respondents with three sets of response choices: high, medium, and low. It is important to mention that faculty were asked to confirm the validity of questionnaire. Gathered data were then processed. Considering the steps of fuzzy Delphi method, certain numbers that were announced by experts must be converted to fuzzy numbers. The fuzzy numbers used in this study were trapezoidal fuzzy numbers. Therefore, the fuzzy score for each range (high, medium, low) was found to be (6,8,10,10), (3,4,6,7), and (0,0,2,4) for high, medium, and low range, respectively. Hence, the certain (de-fuzzy) scores for each range were 8.5, 5, and 1.5, respectively. Then, the last step of the first round of fuzzy Delphi method was finished by finding the average of experts’ evaluation of each factor through necessary calculations. In order to reach a consensus on evaluation factors gathered for the purpose of this study, fuzzy Delphi method must be continued. Therefore, a new questionnaire, which was also validated by faculty, was developed. For each expert, the new questionnaire also contained the difference between his/her evaluation number of each factor and the average calculated in previous step. All experts were then asked to either improve or confirm their evaluations. Collecting the second questionnaire, the average of experts’ evaluation numbers for each factor was again calculated. The new averages were compared with corresponding results from previous round and the difference between two numbers for each factor was calculated. In order to reach a consensus on each evaluation factor, it was stipulated that the difference must not change dramatically. The results of the second round reveal that experts reach the consensus on only two factors. Hence, the fuzzy Delphi method must be continued. The process was repeated 5 times until consensus on all factors was reached. Consequently, the qualified evaluation factors must be determined. Based on some investigations, it was decided that only factors with more than 2/3 (approximately 66%) of all scores to be the final factors of this study. It implies that only evaluation factors with scores greater or equal to 6.16 are qualified to be considered. After finishing all required calculation, it was found that 16 factors have the qualified score to be as the final factors.
 
Results
Thus far, final evaluation factors were selected. The final factors that can be categorized in 4 groups of Liquidity, Profitability, Market Value, and Growth are as follows: Quick Ratio, Earnings Per Share (EPS), Return on Equity (ROE), Operating Profit Margin, Basic Earnings Power Ratio (BEP), Dividend Per Share to Price Ratio, Earnings Per Share Coverage, Dividend Per Share (DPS), Cost of Goods Sold (COGS) to Sales Ratio, Price-Earnings Ratio(P/E), Intrinsic Value Per Share, Equity Growth, Earnings Per Share Growth, Operating Profit Growth, Sales Growth, and Capital Growth.
 
Discussion and Conclusion
In order to be able to invest correctly, employing a good investment model can be very helpful. This study was an effort to determine all important evaluation factors that must be considered by investors to choose a good investment. To find the factors, experts’ opinions were considered.  The final results that have been presented as a list of factors, not only must be complete and comprehensive, it also must be easy, user-friendly, and fast. It is important because it serves investors for whom time is an essential factor in investment, especially in a market such as exchange. In this study, to achieve such a result, the following steps were taken: first, searching the literature, a primarily list of important evaluation factors was prepared and experts were asked to evaluate the factors. In selecting the factors, attempts have been made to eschew the redundancy and similarity of factors. It was also tried to choose factors that have huge impact on evaluating companies. Then, all selected factors were put into a questionnaire and distributed between experts. It is important to mention that experts were also asked to add to the list of evaluation factors, if necessary. Adding this option to the questionnaire reduced the possibility of dropping any important factor. Eventually, using fuzzy Delphi method, the best factors were selected and presented as the final result.