تأثیر تأخیر اعلام سود فصلی بر بازده غیرعادی با در نظر گرفتن نقش تعدیلی دستکاری سود

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استاد گروه حسابداری، دانشکده علوم اداری و اقتصاد، دانشگاه اصفهان، اصفهان، ایران

2 استادیار گروه حسابداری، دانشکده علوم اداری و اقتصاد، دانشگاه اصفهان، اصفهان، ایران

3 کارشناس ارشد گروه حسابداری، دانشکده علوم اداری و اقتصاد، دانشگاه اصفهان، اصفهان، ایران

10.22099/jaa.2023.47213.2323

چکیده

نتایج ادبیات پیشین در حوزه ارتباط سود و بازده بیانگر تاثیر منفی اعلام سودهای با تاخیر بر بازده غیرعادی سهام است که این واکنش منفی می‌تواند ناشی از وجود دستکاری سود در اعلام سودهای با تاخیر باشد. با توجه به اهمیت ارتباط سود و بازده، هدف این پژوهش بررسی تاثیر تاخیر اعلام سود فصلی بر بازده غیرعادی در پنجره اعلام سود و همچنین بررسی نقش تعدیلی دستکاری سود بر این ارتباط است. بدین منظور، نمونه‌ای شامل داده‌های فصلی از 126 شرکت پذیرفته شده در بورس اوراق بهادار در دوره زمانی 1391 تا 1400 انتخاب گردید. . برای آزمون فرضیه ها از تحلیل رگرسیون استفاده شد. نتیجه آزمون فرضیه اول نشان داد تاخیر اعلام سود فصلی بر بازده غیرعادی در پنجره اعلام سود تاثیر منفی و معنادار دارد. همچنین بر اساس فرضیه دوم، دستکاری سود مبتنی بر مدل تعدیل شده بنیش (1999) این تاثیر منفی را تشدید می‌کند. این بدین مفهوم است که اعلام سودهای با تاخیر از دید سرمایه‌گذاران می‌تواند دربردارنده دستکاری سود باشد و در نتیجه دستکاری سود، واکنش منفی به تاخیر اعلام سود فصلی را تشدید می‌کند. با این‌حال، دستکاری سود مبتنی بر مدل کوتاری و همکاران (2005) تاثیر معناداری بر واکنش منفی بازار به تاخیر اعلام سود نداشت.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

The Effect of Delayed Quarterly Earnings Announcements on Abnormal Returns by Considering the Moderating Role of Earnings Manipulation

نویسندگان [English]

  • Daruosh Foroghi 1
  • Narges Hamidian 2
  • Hossein Haji Mirza Aliyan 3
1 University of Isfahan
2 Accounting Department, Faculty of Administrative Sciences and Economics, University of Isfahan, Iran
3 University of Isfahan
چکیده [English]

Introduction
 
Accounting earnings is an appropriate measure for performance evaluation, stock valuation, forecasting and evaluation of expected returns, as well as predicting the company's future performance. Therefore, the announcement of earnings is one of the criteria used to evaluate the reaction of investors to the announced earnings. Like the announcement of earnings, the timing of the earnings announcement also affects the price and returns. Through the timing of the earnings announcement, companies have the possibility to influence the investors' reaction to the reported information, and the market's reaction to the earnings announcement is affected by the time of issuance of the reports. The results of the previous literature show that market reaction to the earnings announcement is influenced by the time of declaring news and reports. The results of these studies show that the announcement of delayed earnings results in negative market reaction, and investors discount this information. This issue can be caused by the reduction of information content of earnings or the possibility of earnings manipulation by managers. Considering the effect of the timing of earnings announcement on the market reaction and also the existence of various motivations for earnings manipulation, it seems necessary to investigate the effect of the timing of the earnings announcement on stock returns and the effect of earnings manipulation on this relationship. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of the delay in announcing quarterly earnings on abnormal stock returns by considering the moderating role of earnings manipulation. 
 
Hypothesis
 
According to the literature, the research hypotheses include:
1.  The delay of quarterly earnings announcement has a negative effect on abnormal returns at the time of earnings announcement.
 
Earnings manipulation exacerbates the negative impact of late quarterly earnings announcements on abnormal returns at the time of earnings announcements.
 
 
 
Methods
 
In this study, to calculate the variables and test the hypotheses, required data has been collected from the annual and quarterly financial statements and its footnotes of listed companies in the Tehran Stock Exchange and the existing databases including “Rahavard Novin” and “Codal”. The sample of this study consists of 126 listed companies in Tehran Stock Exchange during 2012 to 2022. To test hypotheses OLS regression and panel data methods have been used.
 
 
Results
 
The result of the first hypothesis test showed that the delay of quarterly earnings announcement has a negative and significant effect on the abnormal return. Also, according to the second hypothesis, earnings manipulation based on the adjusted model of Beneish (1999) aggravates this negative effect. That is, the delayed earnings announcement in the investors' view can involve earnings manipulation and as a result, the negative reaction to the delay in quarterly earnings announcements will intensify. However, earnings manipulation based on the model of Kothari et al. (2005) did not have a significant effect on the negative market reaction to the delayed earnings announcement.
 
 
Discussion and Conclusion
 
According to the accounting literature, the delayed earnings announcement is accompanied by negative market reaction and investors discount this information.  Chen et al. (2021) believe that this negative reaction can be caused by a reduction in the information content of delayed earnings or the possibility of earnings manipulation by managers. Therefore, in this study, the effect of the delay of quarterly earnings announcement on abnormal stock returns by considering the moderating role of earnings manipulation was investigated.The results of the first hypothesis test showed that the coefficient of delayed earnings announcement at the 95% confidence level has a negative and significant effect on the accumulated abnormal return, which shows, the longer the quarterly earnings announcement is delayed, the lower the cumulative abnormal return in the earnings announcement window; then the first hypothesis is not rejected. In other words, the capital market reacts negatively to the delayed earnings announcement. In the second hypothesis, the effect of earnings manipulation on the negative relationship between the delayed earnings announcement and cumulative abnormal return was investigated. The results of the test of this hypothesis showed that earnings manipulation based on the model of Kothari et al. (2005) has no significant effect on the negative relationship between the delayed earnings announcement and abnormal returns, and the second hypothesis is rejected based on this criterion. This result is consistent with Chen et al. (2021). However, according to the earnings manipulation criterion based on the adjusted Beneish model (1999), the coefficient of the interactive variable RLaq × EMB is negative and significant at the 95% confidence level. Considering the negativity of the coefficient of the interactive variable and also the negative effect of the delayed earnings announcement on the accumulated abnormal return (first hypothesis), it can be said that the earnings manipulation based on the adjusted model of Beneish (1999), aggravates the negative effect of the delayed earnings announcement on the abnormal return, so the second hypothesis is not rejected. This shows that the delayed earnings announcement can contain information about the possibility of earnings manipulation, and investors react negatively to this announcement of earnings. 

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Delayed Earnings Announcement
  • Abnormal Returns
  • Earnings Manipulation

مراجع

منابع
الف. فارسی
آقا‌بیک‌زاده، مهدی، فروغی، داریوش و دستگیر، محسن (1396). تاثیر محافظه کاری و تاخیر در افشای اخبار همزمان سودهای میان دوره‌ای و پیش‌بینی سودهای سالیانه بر واکنش بازار سهام. بررسی‌های حسابداری و حسابرسی، (2)24، 196-173.
ادیبی، آزاده و بزرگ‌اصل، موسی (1396). بررسی رابطه بین محتوای اطلاعاتی اعلامیه‌های سود فصلی و عدم تقارن اطلاعاتی. پژوهش‌های تجربی حسابداری، شماره (3)7، 40-20.
اکبری، زهرا، قدرتی‌زوام، عباس، عزیزی، فرهاد و دریاباری، عباس (1401). تاثیر تاخیر در شناخت سود بر رابطه میان سود و بازده شرکت‌های پذیرفته‌شده در بورس اوراق بهادار تهران. فصلنامه رویکرد‌های پژوهشی نوین در مدیریت و حسابداری، 84، 2513-2531.
افلاطونی، عباس (1394). تجزیه و تحلیل آماری با Eviews در تحقیقات حسابداری و مدیریت مالی. تهران: ترمه.
امساک‌پور، حسین، خردیار، سینا، همایونفر، مهدی و فدایی‌، مهدی (1399). نقش اعلان‌های فصلی سود بر رابطه بین سرعت معاملاتی معامله‌گران و بازده غیرعادی تجمعی سهام. نشریه علمی دانش مالی تحلیل اوراق بهادار، (13)48، 1-14.
حمیدیان، نرگس (1399). تاثیر هم‌حرکتی سود بر ضریب واکنش اعلام سود‌های فصلی. پیشرفت­های حسابداری، (2)12، 159-190.
سرلک، نرگس، کاشانی‌پور، محمد، رحیمیان، نظام‌الدین و بایزیدی، انور (1400). بررسی تاثیر ویژگی‌های کیفی سود بر محتوای اطلاعاتی سودهای سالیانه و میان دوره‌ای با رویکرد فراتحلیل. پیشرفت‌های حسابداری، (2)13، 196-157.
غلامی‌حسن‌کیاده، فرید، امین‌پور، آریا، نیکبخت، محمدرضا و آزادی، کیهان (1395). بررسی تاثیر تاخیر در اعلان سود بر رابطه بین افشای اختیاری و هزینه سرمایه مالکانه. پژوهش‌های کاربردی در گزارشگری مالی، شماره (1)6، 127-152.
فدایی‌نژاد، محمداسماعیل و کامل‌نیا، مجتبی (1392). واکنش بازار به اعلامیه‌های سود فصلی در بورس اوراق بهادار تهران. پژوهش‌های مالی حسابداری، (4)5، 90-71.
کردستانی، غلامرضا و تاتلی، رشید (1395). پیش‌بینی دستکاری سود: توسعه یک الگو. بررسی‌های حسابداری و حسابرسی دانشگاه تهران، (1)23، 96-73.
مشایخ, شهناز, اربابی, زهرا و رحیمی فر, معصومه (1392). بررسی انگیزه‌های مدیریت سود. حسابداری و منافع اجتماعی, (2)3, 70-53.
فروغی، داریوش و مهرداد‌آیسیک، سیدسعید (1394). بررسی واکنش بازار به زمان اعلان سود هر سهم پیش‌بینی شده. پژوهش‌های تجربی حسابداری، (1)5، 162-139.
قوسی، زیبا (1398). تأثیر مدیریت سود واقعی بر محتوای اطلاعاتی سود با تأکید بر عدم تقارن اطلاعاتی در شرکتهای پذیرفته شده بورس اوراق بهادار تهران. چشم انداز حسابداری و مدیریت، (2)8، 100-85.
مهرآذین، علیرضا، مسیح آبادی، ابوالقاسم و میرشکاری، ستاره. (1388). تاخیر اعلان سود و مدیریت سود. مطالعات تجربی حسابداری مالی،7 (28)، 141-115.  
نیکبخت, محمدرضا, آزادی, کیهان, امین پور, آریا و غلامی حسن‌کیاده, فرید. (1396). بررسی تاثیر تاخیر در اعلان سود بر رابطه‌‌ بین افشای اختیاری و هزینه سرمایه مالکانه. پژوهش‌های کاربردی در گزارشگری مالی, 6(1), 127-152.
ب. انگلیسی
Adibi, A. & BozorgAsl, M. (2017). Quarterly Earnings Informativeness and Information Asymmetry. Journal of Empirical Research in Accounting, 7(3), 20-40. (In Persian)
Aflatoni, A. (2015). Statiscal Analysis in Accounting and Financial Management by Eviews. Tehran: termeh. (In Persian)
Aghabeikzadeh, M., Foroughi, D. & Dastgir, M. (2017). The Effect of Conservatism and Delay in Simultaneous News Disclosure of Interim Earnings and Annual Earnings Forecast on Stock Market Reaction. Journal of Accounting and Auditing Review, 24(2), 173-196. (In Persian)
Akbari, Z., Ghodrati Zoeram, A., Azizi, F., Akbari, Z. & Daryadari, A. (2022). The Effect of Delay in Profit Recognition on the Relationship between Profits and Returns of Companies Listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange. Journal of New Research Approaches in Management and Accounting, 84, 2513-2531. (In Persian)
Bagnoli, M., Kross, W. & Watts, S.G. (2002). The Information in Management's Expected Earnings Report Date: A Day Late, A Peny Short. Journal of Accounting Research, 40(5), 1275-1296.
Ball, R. & Kothari, S.P. (1991). Security Returns around Earnings Announcements. The Accounting Review, 66, 718–738.
Ball, R. & P. Brown (1968). An Empirical Evaluation of Accounting Income Numbers. Journal of Accounting Research, 6(2), 159-178.
Baron, R. M. & Kenny, D. A. (1986). The Moderator-Mediator Variable Distinction in Social Psychological Research: Conceptual, Strategic and Statistical Considerations. Journal of Personality & Social Psychology, 51, 1173-1182.
Bathke, A., Mason, T. & Morton, R. (2019). Investor Overreaction to Earnings Surprises & Post-Earnings-Announcement Reversals. Journal of Contemporary Accounting Research, 36(4), 2069-2092.
Beaver, W. (1968). The Information Content of Annual Earnings Announcements. Journal of Accounting Research Supplement, 6, 67-92.
Beneish, M. D., Nichols, D. C., (2007). The Predictable Cost of Earnings Manipulation. Indiana University, Kelley school of business, Working paper series.
Beneish MD (1999). The Detection of Earnings Manipulation. Financial Analysis Journal, 55, 24-36.
Berkman, H. & McKenzie M.D. (2012). Earnings Announcements: Good News for Institutional Investors and Short Sellers. The Financial Review. 47(1), 91-113.
Bernard, V. & Thomas, J. (1990). Evidence that Stock Prices do not Fully Reflect the Implications of Current Earnings for Future Earnings. Journal of Accounting & Economics, 13(4), 305–340.
Bergsma, K., & Tayal, J. (2020). Quarterly earnings announcements and intra-industry information transfer from the Pacific to the Atlantic. International Review of Financial Analysis, 70, 1-17.
Bukit, R.  B., & Iskandar, T. M. (2009). Surplus Free Cash Flow, Earnings Management and Audit Committee. International Journal of Economics and Management, 3(3), 204-223.
Chai, ML. & Tung, S. (2002). The Effect of Earnings Announcement Timing on Earnings Management. Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, 29, 1337–1354.
Chung, R., Firth, M., & Kim, J. B. (2005). Earnings Management, Surplus Free Cash Flow and External Monitoring. Journal of Business Research, 58(1), 766-776.
Chen, R.C., Lin, J.W. & Sauer D.A. (2014). Earnings Announcement, Quality & Quantity of Information, & Stock Price Changes. Journal of Financial Research, 20(4), 483-502.
Chen, T. (2023). Belief Diversity and Price Informativeness around Earnings Announcements. Journal of Accounting and Public Policy, 42(3), 107036.
Choi, H.M. (2018). A tale of two uncertainties. Journal of Banking and Finance, 92, 81–99.
Chung, R., Firth, M., & Kim, J. B. (2005). Earnings Management, Surplus Free Cash Flow and External Monitoring. Journal of Business Research, 58(1), 766-776.
Chen, L.H., Huang, W., Jiang, G.J. & Zhu K.X. (2021). Why Do Investors Earnings Announced Late? Review of Quantitative Finance & Accounting, 58, 977-1014.
Clement, M., Lee, J., & Yong, K. (2019). A New Perspective on Post-Earnings Announcement Drift: Using a Relative Drift Measure. Journal of Business Finance & Accounting,46(9-10), 1123-1143.
Collins, D. & Kothari, S.P. (1989). An Analysis of Intertemporal & Cross-Sectional Determinants of Earnings Response Coefficients. Journal of Accounting & Economics, 28(2), 333-343.
Davidson III, W.  N., Jiraporn, P., Kim, Y. S., & Nemec, C.  (2004). Earnings Management Following Duality-Creating Successions:  Ethnostatistics, Impression Management, and Agency Theory. Academy of Management Journal, 2(1), 267-275.
Dechow, P., Ge, W., & Schrand, C. (2010). Understanding earnings quality: a review of the proxies, their determinants and their consequences. Journal of Accounting and Economics, 50(2-3), 344–401.
Dechow, P., R. Sloan & A. Sweeney (1995). Detecting Earnings Management. The Accounting Review, 70(2), 193– 225.
Duarte-Silva, T., Fu, H., Noe, C.H. & Ramesh, K. (2013). How Do Investor Interpret Announcements of Earnings Delays? Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, 25(1), 64-71.
Emsakpur, H., Kheradyar, S., Homayonfar M. & Fadaei, M. (2021). The Role of Quarterly Earnings Announcements on the Relationship between Traders' Trading Speed and Cumulative Abnormal Stock Returns. Journal of Financial Knowledge of Securities Analysis, 48(13), 1-14. (In Persian)
Even-Tov, O. (2017). When does the Bond Price Reaction to Earnings Announcements Predict Future Stock Returns? Journal of Accounting & Economics, 64(1), 167-182.
Fadaei Nejad, M.S. & Kamelniya, M (2014). Market Reaction to Quarterly Earning Anouncment in Tehran Stock Exchange. Journal of Financial Accounting Research, 5(4), 71-90. (In Persian)
Foroughi, D. & Mehrdad Ayask, S. S. (2015). Market Reaction to the Timing of EPS Forecast. Journal of Empirical Research in Accounting, 5(1), 139-162. (In Persian)
Gholami Hasankiadeh, F., Aminpour, A., Azadi, K. & Nikbakht, M.R. (2017). Studying the Effect of Earnings Announcement Lag on the Relation between Voluntary Disclosure and Cost of Equity. Journal of Applied Research in Financial Reporting, 6(1), 127-152. (In Persian)
Ghoosi, Z. (2019). The Effect of Real Earnings Management on the Information Content of Earnings with Emphasis on Information of Assymentry in Tehran Stok Exchange (TSE). Journal of Accounting & Management Vision, 8(2), 85-100. (In Persian)
Graham, J.R., Harvey, C.R. & Rajgopal, S. (2005). The Economic Implications of Corporate Financial Reporting. Journal of Accounting & Economics, 40, 3–73.
Hamidian, N. (2020). The Effect of Earnings Co-movement on Quarterly Earnings Response Coefficient. Journal of Accounting Advances, 12(2), 159-190. (In Persian)
Healy, P.   M.   (1985).   The   effects   of   bonus   schemes   on accounting decisions. Journal of Accounting and Economics, 7(1-3), 85-107.
Healy, P., & J. Wahlen. (1999). A Review of the Earnings Management Literature & its Implications for Standard Setting. Journal of Accounting Horizons, 17, 365-383.
Jackson, A.B., Chao, L.I. & Morris, R. (2020). Earnings Co-movements & the Informativeness of Earnings. Journal of Accounting Finance & Business Studies, 56(3), 295-319.
Johnson, T. L., and E. C. So. (2018). Time will tell: Information in the timing of scheduled earnings news. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 53 (6), 2431-2464.
Kim, M.P., Pierce, S.R. & Yeung, I. (2021). Why Firms Announce Good News Late: Earnings Management & Financial Reporting Timelines. Journal of Contemporary Accounting Research, 38(4), 2691-2722.
Kim, J., Kim, R. & Kim, S. (2020). Does Financial Statement Comparability Mitigate Delayed Trading Volume before Earnings Announcements? Journal of Business Research, 107, 62-75.
Kordestani, G.R. & Tatli, R. (2016). The Prediction of Earnings Manipulation: Development of a Model. Journal of Accounting & Auditing Review, 23(1), 73-96. (In Persian)
Kothari, S.P., Leone A.J. & Wasley, C.E. (2005) Performance Matched Discretionary Accrual Measures. Journal of Accounting & Economics, 39, 163–197.
Kothari, S.P., Shu, S. & Wysocki, P.D. (2009). Do Managers with hold Bad News? Journal of Accounting Research, 47, 241-276.
Kross, W. & Schroeder, D.A. (1984). An Empirical Investigation of the Effect of Quarterly Earnings Announcement Timing on Stock Returns. Journal of Accounting Research, 22, 153-176.
Livnat, J., & Mendenhall, R. (2006). Comparing the Post-Earnings Announcement Drift for Surprises Calculated from Analyst & Time Series Forecasts. Journal of Accounting Research, 44(1), 177-205.
Mashayekh, Sh., Arbabi, Z. & Rahimifar, M. (2013). Study of Earnings Management Incentives. Journal of accounting and social interests, 3(2), 53-70. (In Persian)
Mehrazin, A., MasihAbadi, A. & Mirshekari, S. (2009). Delayed announcement of earnings and earnings management. Empirical Studies in Financial Accounting, 7(28), 115-141. (In Persian)
Namazi, M. & Namazi, N. R. (2016). Conceptual Analysis of Moderator and Mediator Variables in Business Research. Journal of Procedia Economics & Finance, 36, 540-554.
Noh, S., E. C. So, and R. S. Verdi. 2021. Calendar rotations: A new approach for studying the impact of timing using earnings announcements. Journal of Financial Economics, 140(3), 865-893.
Nikbakht, M. R., Azadi, K., Aminpour, A., & Gholami Hasankiadeh, F. (2017). Studying the Effect of Earnings Announcement Lag on the Relation between Voluntary Disclosure and Cost of Equity. Applied Research in Financial Reporting, 6(1), 127-152. (In Persian)
Ping-Wen, S. & Zipeng, W. (2022). Stock Return Predictability of the Cumulative Abnormal Returns around the Earnings Announcement Date: Evidence from China. International Review of Finance, 23(1), 58-86.
Sarlak, N., Kashanipour, M., Rahimian, N. & Bayazidi, A. (2021). Investigating the Effect of Earnings Quality Characteristics on Information Content of Annual and Interim Earnings with a Meta-analysis Approach. Journal of Accounting Advances, 13(2), 157-196. (In Persian)
Trueman, B. (1990). Theories of Earnings Announcement Timing. Journal of Accounting & Economics, 13, 285–301.
Watts, R. & Zimmerman, J. (1986). Positive Accounting Theory. Prentice-Hall, Englewood Cliffs, New Jersy.
Wayo, M. (2014). A review of earnings manipulation literature and the implications on management compensation. Available at ssrn.com.
Wong, M., W.K. Cheung, A. & Hu, W. (2021). When two Anomalies Meet: Volume and Timing Effects on Earnings Announcements. The Financial Review, 56(2), 355-380.
 

فایل ها

سابقه مقاله

  • تاریخ دریافت: 04 اردیبهشت 1402
  • تاریخ بازنگری: 31 مرداد 1402
  • تاریخ پذیرش: 03 مرداد 1402

هم رسانی

ارجاع به این مقاله

آمار