بررسی تأثیر معیارهای ذهنی اندازه‌گیری بر پیش‌بینی اجزای پایدار و ناپایدار سود توسط تحلیل‌گران مالی

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد حسابداری، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، واحد اصفهان (خوراسگان)

2 استادیار گروه حسابداری، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، واحد اصفهان (خوراسگان)

چکیده

نحوه صحیح طبقه‌بندی اقلام و نیز شکل ارائه صورت‌های مالی یکی از راهکارهای بهبود قابل فهم بودن این صورت‌هاست. هدف پژوهش حاضر بررسی تأثیر طبقه‌بندی همزمان اقلام سود بر اساس دو معیار ذهنی‌گرایی و پایداری بر پیش‌بینی‌ تحلیل‌گران از اقلام سود است. هم‌چنین در این پژوهش به بررسی تأثیر شکل ارائه صورت سود و زیان بر پیش‌بینی‌ سود توسط تحلیل‌گران پرداخته می‌شود. این پژوهش را می‌توان از دیدگاه نتایج پژوهش، کاربردی، از نظر هدف به عنوان پژوهشی شبه تجربی و از نظر شیوه جمع آوری داده‌ها پیمایشی در نظر گرفت. به منظور آزمون فرضیه‌های پژوهش از پرسشنامه مبتنی بر سناریو استفاده شده است. این پرسشنامه برگرفته از پژوهش هویت و همکاران (2015) است. قلمرو زمانی پژوهش سال 1396، جامعه آماری شامل کلیه تحلیل‌گران مالی فعال در بورس اوراق بهادار تهران و نمونه آماری شامل 136 تحلیل‌گر مالی است. نتایج نشان می‌دهد که ذهنی‌گرایی اقلام سود بر پیش‌بینی تحلیل‌گران از این اقلام دارای تأثیر معنی‌دار است. به عبارت دیگر برای اقلام سود با پایداری بالا و پایین در مواقعی که ذهنی‌گرایی بالاست، مقدار کمتری پیش‌بینی می‌شود. این نتیجه در هر دو شکل ماتریسی و متوالی صورت سود و زیان صادق است. هم‌چنین نتایج نشان می‌دهد که شکل ارائه صورت سود و زیان بر پیش‌بینی تحلیل‌گران از اقلام سود تاثیرگذار نیست.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

The Study of the Effect of Measurement Subjectivity on the Forecasting of Persistent and Non-Persistent Components of Earnings by Financial Analysts

نویسندگان [English]

  • Neda Ghayoomi 1
  • Afsaneh Soroushyar 2
  • Saeid Ali Ahmadi 2
1 Department of Accounting, Isfahan (Khorasgan) Branch, Islamic Azad University, Isfahan, Iran
2 Department of Accounting, Isfahan (Khorasgan) Branch, Islamic Azad University, Isfahan, Iran
چکیده [English]

   
Introduction
Based on conceptual framework of financial reporting, the primary purpose of financial reporting is to assist the investors to make economic decisions. Therefore, understandability of financial statements is very important to them. The correct method of classification is one of the ways to improve the understandability of financial statements. Many researchers believe that classifying earnings items based on their underlying attributes is useful for forecasting and valuation. Previous studies showed that persistence classifications lead to better prediction (Fairfield et al, 1996). In addition, subjectivity is another attribute that is important for investors and analysts. Persistence is the extent to which an earnings item is indicative of its future amount and subjectivity is the extent to which managers use judgment to measure the amount of the earnings item (Hewitt et al, 2015). In previous studies, persistence and measurement subjectivity classifications are displayed separately in financial statement. This research is based on two streams of literature on subjectivity and persistence and investigates both subjectivity and persistence clarifications in financial statement. 
In measurement subjectivity, intentional and unintentional errors are increased. Thus, when the measurement subjectivity is high, it seems that persistence classification is misreported. In other words, if management classifies the special items as a high persistence, analysts expect that they have low persistence. In addition, if management classifies the earnings item as a low persistence, analysts perceive that this item is high persistence. Therefore, when measurement subjectivity is in high level, analysts rely less on persistence classifications for forecasting. Accordingly, combining persistence and measurement subjectivity classifications improve the predictive content of reported earnings and are used by analysts and investors.
Previous studies often investigated the sequential format to present the earnings items in income statements. In this format, the persistence and measurement subjectivity classifications are displayed separately (Schkade and Kleinmuntz, 1994). Although the sequential format has been considered by standard setters, psychology theory supports the usefulness of matrix format. Because in this format persistence classifications are displayed on rows and measurement subjectivity classifications are displayed on columns. In matrix format analysts require acquiring only one value to process both classifications, while the sequential format sometimes requires analysts to acquire values across multiple columns to process these classifications. Thus, matrix format facilitates analysts’ processing of the classifications (Hewitt et al, 2015). 
 
Hypotheses
This paper has two purposes. Firstly, the effect of the persistence and subjectivity classification on the prediction of analysts is investigated. Second, it examines the effect of the presentation format of income statement on the analysts’ forecast. 
 
Methods
This research in terms of purpose is applied research, in terms of method is quasi-empirical and in the point of data collection is survey. In this research, to test the research hypotheses, the questionnaire of Hewitt et al (2015) research is used. The statistical sample of research includes 136 analysts participating in Tehran Stock exchange selected by available sampling method. The period of research is 2017 and its subject field is behavioral accounting.
 
Results
The results show when forecasting a high persistence earnings item, analysts forecast a lower amount when measurement subjectivity is high. In addition, when forecasting a low persistence earnings item, analysts forecast a lower amount when measurement subjectivity is high. These results hold both sequential and matrix format. The other results indicate the presentation format of income statement has not significant effect on analysts forecasting.
 
Discussion and Conclusion
In general, it is inferred from the findings of the present research that when the measurement subjectivity is high, analysts rely less on this item and forecast a lower amount. The measurement subjectivity and persistence classification affect analysts’ forecasting. Therefore, it is useful to classify the earnings item in income statement. Moreover, because of having expertise, the presentation format doesn’t affect analysts in earnings items processing and their forecasting.
  

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Subjectivity Classification
  • Persistence Classification
  • Financial Analysts' Forecasting
  • Income Statement
 
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