per
پیشرفتهای حسابداری
2008-9988
2716-9626
2017-02-19
8
2
1
29
10.22099/jaa.2017.4047
4047
Research Paper
شناسایی موانع و محدودیتهای اجرای تحولات در نظام پاسخگویی مالی و عملیاتی دانشگاههای دولتی ایران
Identifying barriers and constraints to implement reforms in the financial and operational accountability systems of public universities
غریبه اسماعیلی کیا
ghareibeesmaeli@yahoo.com
1
مهناز ملا نظری
2
چکیده مواجههی دانشگاههای دولتی سراسر دنیا با تغییرات محیطی گسترده، نیاز به تهیهی اطلاعات بهینه را برای تصمیمگیری پررنگ کرده است. اجرای تحولات نظام پاسخگویی برای تهیهی اطلاعات مناسب به منظور تصمیمگیری، در کشورهای مختلف با موانعی همراه بوده است. هدف پژوهش حاضر شناسایی موانع اجرای تحولات در نظام پاسخگویی دانشگاههای دولتی ایران است. با بهکارگیری روش دلفی و نظرخواهی از 40 نفر از خبرگان، یافته­ها نشان داد که دانش و رشتهی غیر مرتبط اداره­کنندگان دانشگاه­ها، عامل اصلی ایجاد تضاد، مقاومت کارکنان به دلیل فقدان مهارت، مهمترین خنثی­کننده و رتبهی نخست تاخیرکننده­ها، نبود مدیران خبره برای نظارت بر فرآیند تحول بوده است. نهایتاً آموزش به گروه استقرار دهنده، دارای رتبهی اول نیرویهای محرک برای ادامهی تحولات شده است.
Introduction Public universities around the world are faced with environmental change. The leading to a need for improved information for decision making to ensure efficiency and effectiveness of service quality. Reforms of accountability system have been one program to provide improved information for decision making in higher education. Reforms taking place in most developed and developing countries have faced challenges, barriers and problems. Despite the emphasis of the legislators in the Third Economic, Social and Cultural plan based on the reforms in governmental budgeting and changes from program budgeting to performance-based budgeting, the end of 1383 was the last year of the program, was not gained much success. Still trying to establish performance-based budgeting continued in the fourth and fifth development programs coding are also considered guidelines for universities and public sector accounting system based on accrual accounting implementation of the notification of the beginning of 1394, is in line with the implementation of the reforms. Due to the above argument, we need to examine why despite the flaws of the current accounting system and provided necessary legislative, including the areas of autonomy granted to universities, drastic reforms in the Financial system and operational accountability of these institutions has not been happened. In fact what kind of barriers has the implementation of reforms in financial and operational accountability system of public universities has been faced with? What are the momentums beginning with reforms in state universities? Research Questions 1- What are the Confusers of reform in financial accountability and operational system of public universities? 2- What are the frustrators of reform in financial accountability and operational system of public universities? 3- What are the Delayer of reform in financial accountability and operational system of public universities? 4- What are the momentum of reform in financial accountability and operational system of public universities? Research Method The aim of this study is to identify barriers and constraints in implementing reforms in the of financial and operational accountability system of public universities using Delphi research and gaining opinions of experts in this field. The study population consisted of all experts in the field of reforms of the financial and operational accountability system of universities. Due to the limited number of experts in this area snowball sampling was used to identify them and 40 experts were formed Delphi members. In this study, to determine consensus among panel members Kendall's coefficient was used. Kendall‘s coefficient of concordance (Kendall‘s W), is a consensus criterion representing the level of consensus between the participants. Kendall‘s coefficient of concordance ranges from 0 to 1, indicating the degree of consensus reached by the panel (strong consensus for W > 0.7; moderate consensus for W=0.5; and weak consensus for W < 0.3). In the case of yes and no questions, tests are developed on the basis of two states non-parametric tests are used to analyze the data. The Binomial test is done for every single question. T-test is used to assess the severity of an agreement among experts. Results Results showed that the experts have strong agreement on three of the five factors, as Confusers, among them the knowledge and unrelated Field of Study were identified as the primary causes of conflict. Strong agreement of experts with all five factors of frustrators were documented. Eight cases of the ten factors as Delayer, were agreed upon by the experts and the top Delayer was the lack of qualified managers to oversee the reform process and support it. Finally, all factors contributing to momentum received strong agreement but training of Establishment team, ranked as first momentum. Discussion and Conclusion The results of comparative studies in the literature of reforms in financial and operational accountability system in universities showed that for successful implementation of reforms key success factors are required in most countries. Due to the lack of necessary infrastructure for the reform process of change, evidence points to attempts for the transformation rather than the achievement of reform. Results indicate that the process of reform occur slowly when training staff development activities carried out at the same time. Accounting reforms in thepublic sector in developing countries are also likely due to motivation by the result in a government, yet there is no evidence that these developments will ensure success. A fact that has been true in relation to the reform in our country.
https://jaa.shirazu.ac.ir/article_4047_7197da59fb0e811c3c1293cb609e046b.pdf
موانع اجرایی
تحول
نظام پاسخگویی مالی و عملیاتی
دانشگاههای دولتی ایران
Keywords: Barriers of Implementation
Refoms
Public Universities
per
پیشرفتهای حسابداری
2008-9988
2716-9626
2017-02-19
8
2
41
64
10.22099/jaa.2017.4048
4048
Research Paper
حساسیت بازده به تغییرات عدم اطمینان ناشی از سود
Sensitivity to returns due to uncertainty changes of earnings
محمد علی آقایی
www.aghaeim1336@yahoo.com
1
مهدی خلیلی
khalilimehdi@yahoo.com
2
چکیده محتوای اطلاعات صورتهای مالی با استفاده از آنتروپی اندازهگیری میشود. توان محیط اطلاعاتی را میتوان با استفاده از نسبت تکرار آنتروپی مثبت به منفی اندازهگیری کرد و باوجوداینکه حقیقت ارقام بهآسانی قابل تصدیق نیست، اما نسبت عدم اطمینان، پیشبینی عملکرد شرکت را امکانپذیر میکند. فرض میشود نسبت عدم اطمینان سود حسابداری با بازده سالانهی شرکت رابطهی منفی داشته باشد و شرکتهایی که نسبت عدم اطمینان پایینتری دارند، بازده سالانهی بالاتری را تجربه میکنند. برای آزمون فرضیههای تحقیق، با توجه به این محدودیت که شرکتها نباید در بازهی زمان انتخابی زیانده باشند، اطلاعات مالی 960 سال شرکت مورد آزمون قرار گرفت. یافتههای تحقیق نشان میدهد بین نسبت عدم اطمینان ناشی از سود حسابداری و بازده سالانهی شرکت رابطهی منفی و معناداری وجود دارد.
Introduction The information content perspective stresses accounting’s role as a source of information. To provide information means it is possible to become better informed, to learn something we did not yet know. In turn, being able to become better informed means we were initially less informed, that uncertainty was present. Uncertainty is the opposite of certainty lack of complete foreknowledge, a setting in which there is ambiguity measure on the set of possible states. Probability means some states are more likely to occur than other states, just as others may be equally likely. Being serious about information is no easy task. Developing the skill to understand and be facile with information issues requires patience and effort. Increasing the probability and reaching certainty requires to have an adequate information content. The purpose of the present paper is to provide a formal definition of information using concepts from Shannon's influential paper and to develop a measure of the information content of a message. Throughout, we stress the difference between information and knowledge (i.e. all information is knowledge but not all knowledge is information). We then argue that the financial accounting process can really be formalized as a communication system where information can be determined as having been transmitted when uncertainty regarding a future probability state-space has changed. Furthermore, we demonstrate analytically a way in which Shannon's entropy measure can be used to determine the information content of an accounting report (e.g. financial statement). Finally, we explore the measure empirically to see what insights might be gained. Research Hypothesis We hypothesize that uncertainty rate of accounting earnings has a negative correlation with annual return of firms, and firms which have low uncertainty rate have a greater annual return and firms which have high uncertainty rate experience lower degree of annual return. This paper is trying to collect evidence to verify this fact. Methods The research method used in this article is multivariate regression analysis of the impact of annual return and uncertainty ratios. Based on the previous discussion and assuming q(t) adequately captures the strength of the information environment surrounding each company. Results Results of statistic test of research hypothesis regarding the relationship between annual return and uncertainty ratios showed that this hypothesis was approved, in a way that it has been assessed to be negative. Discussion and Conclusion The findings of the hypothesis test confirm this hypothesis stipulating the existence of an association between annual return and uncertainty ratios, so this relationship is negative. Regarding the purpose of the research which is examining the relationship between annual return and uncertainty ratio, it is impossible to compare the results of this hypothesis with the results of other studies. In this hypothesis, the impact of controlled variables such as firm size, the ratio of market to book value were also tested. The results show a positive and an insignificant impact of firm size, while there is a positive and significant impact between the ratio of market to book value and annual return.
https://jaa.shirazu.ac.ir/article_4048_dc3170a01b1b7667c33744e760af7ed4.pdf
تئوری اطلاعات
اطلاعات حسابداری
عدم اطمینان
آنتروپی
Information Theory
Accounting Information
Uncertainty
Entropy
per
پیشرفتهای حسابداری
2008-9988
2716-9626
2017-02-19
8
2
65
91
10.22099/jaa.2017.4050
4050
Research Paper
بررسی رابطهی بین دورهی تصدی و تغییر حسابرس با کیفیت سود شرکتهای پذیرفتهشده در بورس اوراق بهادار تهران بر اساس مدل کاسنیک
A Study of the relation between audit firm rotation and audit firm tenure on income quality at Tehran Stock Exchange
Companies based on Kasznik model
پرویز پیری
pourfathi92@gmail.com
1
سمانه برزگری صدقیانی
2
امروز یکی از مسائل مهم در حوزهی حسابرسی، کیفیت حسابرسی است. از سوی دیگر کیفیت سود نیز همواره مدنظر تحلیلگران اطلاعات مالی و بازار قرار دارد. هدف این مقاله بررسی رابطهی بین دورهی تصدی و تغییر حسابرس با کیفیت سود شرکتهای پذیرفتهشده در بورس اوراق بهادار تهران بر اساس مدل کاسنیک است. روش پژوهش از نوع توصیفی- همبستگی بوده و اطلاعات 83 شرکت پذیرفتهشده در بورس اوراق بهادار تهران طی دورهی زمانی 1394-1383 موردبررسی قرارگرفته است. نتایج تحقیق نشان میدهد افزایش دورهی تصدی حسابرسان بر میزان اقلام تعهدی میافزاید و درنتیجه از کیفیت سود کاسته میشود، درحالیکه با افزایش میزان تغییر حسابرس از میزان اقلام تعهدی کاسته شده و بر میزان کیفیت سود افزوده میشود.
Introduction One of the most important issues nowadays in the audit field is the audit quality. Furthermore, analysts of financial information and stock market participants consider quality of earnings as important information. Various factors affect the quality of audit including the independence of audit, firm size, reputation and tenure and change of independent auditors noted (Namazi, 1390). Also Earnings quality can be measured by accruals quality, earning persistence, earning predictability and earning smoothing (Nichols, 2002). On these issues, some accounting professionals and financial markets believe that the audit quality and earnings quality could have a meaningful relationship and be effective. So to assess the financial and accounting information by business people and investors, a review of the relationship between them is necessary. The present study aims at examining the relationship between tenure and change auditor with earnings quality at Tehran Stock Exchange. Hypothesis The main goal of the study is to examine the relationship between tenure and change auditor with earnings quality at Tehran stock exchange. Thus research hypotheses are developed as follows: H1. There is a significant relationship between auditor tenure and earnings quality. H2. There is a significant relationship auditor rotation and earnings quality. Methods In this research, the independent variables are auditor tenure and auditor change (as a proxy for audit quality), and dependent variable is earnings quality measured by Kasznik model (1999). According to the literature, control variables include firm size, leverage and grow rate of sales. The data required for the research were gathered through official websites of Tehran Stock Exchange. The research method is a descriptive and correlational approach. The 83 companies listed in Tehran Stock Exchange during the period from 2004 to 2015 were examined. To test research hypotheses, we have used a multiple linear regression model and E-views software. Results The first hypothesis of the study was proposed and tested to investigate the relationship between auditor tenure and earnings quality. The results showed that increasing the tenure of the auditors resulted in increasing the accrual items and thus the quality of earnings was reduced. The result of this hypothesis is consistent with the results of the study conducted by Diana (2013), Geiger (2002) and Gul(2009). The second hypothesis of this study was the relationship between auditor rotation and earnings quality. The results showed that increasing auditor change caused decreasing accrual so earning quality increased. The results of this hypothesis are consistent with the research results of Levis (2001) and Maxwell (2004). Conclusion The research findings showed that by increasing auditors’ tenure the amount of accruals will increase and thus the earning quality will decrease. Meanwhile, by increasing the amount auditor change, accruals will decrease and the amount of earning quality will increase.
https://jaa.shirazu.ac.ir/article_4050_044b9b1a0ec76ed16eeab97b1096988a.pdf
تغییر حسابرس
چرخش مؤسسات حسابرسی
دورهی تصدی حسابرس
کیفیت سود
Audit Firm Tenure
Audit Rotation
Earning Quality
Kasznik Model
per
پیشرفتهای حسابداری
2008-9988
2716-9626
2017-02-19
8
2
93
122
10.22099/jaa.2017.4051
4051
Research Paper
قیمتگذاری نادرست سهام و رفتار سرمایهگذاری شرکتها: شواهدی از نظریهی ارضای سهامداران
Stock mispricing and firms investment behavior: Evidence from stockholders catering theory
ولی خدادادی
vkh201349@gmail.com
1
محمد نوروزی
mohammad_n488@yahoo.com
2
ادبیات مالی تأثیر قیمتگذاری بازار بر رفتار مدیران و عملکرد شرکتها را تأیید میکند. یکی از پدیدههایی که در بازار سهام وجود دارد قیمتگذاری نادرست سهام است که میتواند بر تصمیمات مدیران اثر گذارد و باعث افزایش ارزش شرکت شود. هدف اصلی پژوهش حاضر بررسی تأثیر قیمتگذاری نادرست سهام بر تصمیمات سرمایهگذاری شرکتها و تأثیر محدودیت مالی بر این ارتباط است. هدف دیگر پژوهش آزمون نظریهی ارضای سهامداران است. برای محاسبه قیمتگذاری نادرست از رویکرد تجزیهی نسبت ارزش بازار به دفتری استفادهشده است. نمونهای شامل 173 شرکت پذیرفتهشده در بورس اوراق بهادار تهران در بازه زمانی 1385 الی 1393 مورد تحلیل قرار گرفتند. نتایج آزمونها نشان داد که قیمتگذاری نادرست سهام بر تصمیمات سرمایهگذاری مدیران تأثیر معنادار و مستقیمی دارد؛ اما میزان محدودیت مالی بر رابطهی قیمتگذاری نادرست- سرمایهگذاری تأثیر معناداری ندارد. همچنین نتایج نشان داد که نظریهی ارضای سهامداران میتواند رفتار مدیران را نسبت به سهامداران توضیح دهد؛ به عبارتی مدیران در تصمیمات سرمایهگذاری به دنبال ارضا سهامداران در کوتاهمدت هستند و توجهی به افق زمانی بلندمدت ندارند.
Introduction Both theory and empirical evidence support the notion that equity mispricing has an impact on managers’ investment and financing decisions. For instance, misevaluation can drive firms’ takeover behavior (Rhodes-Kropf et al., 2005). Stock mispricing occurs when the stock price deviates from its fundamental value. The purpose of this paper is to examine the relationship between stock mispricing and corporate investment behavior. We also examine the impact of financial constraint on mispricing-investment relationship. Then we test a catering theory describing how managers cater to the firm's short-horizon shareholders. Hypothesis Hypothesis 1: Stock mispricing has a significant and positive impact on firm investment. Hypothesis 2: The more the firm depends on equity (financially constrained), the higher the sensitivity of firm investments to stock mispricing. Hypothesis 3: The shorter the investment horizon of shareholders, the more pronounced the effect of stock mispricing on corporate investments. Methods We base our sample selection on all of the firms listed on the TSE during 2006-2015 period. The sample consists of 173 Tehran Stock Exchange firms. The sample excludes the following: 1-financial firms, 2-firms in the utility industry, 3-firms-year with missing data, and 4-firms that have not fiscal year end on 12.29 or change the fiscal year end during the time period. The resulting sample yields 1496 firm-year observations. Our basic methodology involves multiple regressions using Panel Data method. The models are estimated with Ordinary Least Square (OLS) and Generalized Least Square (GLS). Variables definitions are as follows: Dependent Variable Investment: We define investment as sum of capital expenditures (dividend plus interest paid), fix asset acquisitions minus sale of fixed assets divided to beginning year total asset. Independent Variables Mispricing: To obtain the mispricing variables we rely on Rhodes-Kropf, Robinson and Viswanathan’s (2005) market-to-book decomposition methodology. They decompose the MTB ratio to mispricing and growth components. Mispricing is the ratio of the market value of firm i at the time t on the fundamental value of firm i at time t, (M/V). If mispricing is positive (negative) then the firm is overvalued (undervalued). The fundamental value of the firm V is a function of certain accounting variables (θ) and their multiples (αs) and is calculated in two steps: First, we estimate the model (1): where M is the firm market value, BV is the book value of equity, NI is net income, D (NI it <0) is a dummy variable equal to 1 when NI is negative (firm-year with loss) and 0 otherwise, and LEV is the ratio of total debt to total asset. Next, using the estimated multiples (regressions Fitted Value) and Market values, we calculate the mispricing and growth components of market to book ratio. Financial Constraint: The degree of financial constraint (Zit) captures the firm’s dependence on equity. We follow Raei and Hesarzadeh (2010) estimation of Kaplan and Zingales (1997) index as model (2) follows: In equation (2), CF is cash flow from operations, DIV is cash dividends, and C is sum of cash and short-term investments. All three preceding variables are scaled by beginning year book value of total assets. DEBT is the total debt divided by total asset. Investors Horizon: We follow Polk and Sapienza (2009), and use share turnover ratio as a proxy for the average length of time that investors hold their stocks. Firms that are owned by short- (long-) horizon shareholders are more likely to have high (low) share turnover ratios. Share turnover ratio is calculated as the average of the monthly ratios of traded shares to shares outstanding during the fiscal year. Control Variables Net Equity Issuance: the ratio of net equity issued to total assets. Cash Flow: Cash Flow from Operations to Total Asset. Growth: according to the Rhodes-Kropf, et al (2005) Growth component is equal to the fundamental value of the firm (v (it)) divided by Book Value. Free Float: this variable is included to control the Share Turnover ratio. Results The results show that stock mispricing has positive impact on investment behavior. However, the degree of financial constraints has not significance impact on mispricing-investment relationship. The results also show that catering theory was true and the managers are going to cater stockholders in short-Horizon. Discussion and Conclusion Some behavioral reasons such as shareholders herding behavior, over (under) reaction and information asymmetry are the main factors that cause the mispricing. Standard finance theory could not explain behavioral problems and capital market expectations, but the behavioral finance has tried to explain these issues. The aim of this study was to examine the impact of mispricing on the investment behaviors of firms. The results showed that mispricing has a direct impact on investment decisions. The results also showed that the financial constraints have no effect on mispricing-investment relationship. In case of catering theory it was found that managers seek to cater shareholders who have short - horizon (and more traded shares) and do not pay attention to long run performance. The results are consistent with Morck et al. (1990), Chang et al. (2007), Alzahrani and Rao (2014) and not inconsistent with the behavioral finance theories like market timing theory, catering theory, agency theory.
https://jaa.shirazu.ac.ir/article_4051_1b3b5d854ce41fc4a1468949470e7874.pdf
قیمتگذاری نادرست سهام
سرمایهگذاری
ارضای سهامداران
محدودیت مالی
Keywords: Stock Mispricing
Investment
Catering Theory
Financial Constraint
per
پیشرفتهای حسابداری
2008-9988
2716-9626
2017-02-19
8
2
123
149
10.22099/jaa.2017.4052
4052
Research Paper
تأثیر خودشیفتگی مدیران بر مدیریت سود و عملکرد مالی
CEO narcissism impacts on earnings management and financial performance
شکرالله خواجوی
hkhajavi@rose.shirazu.ac.ir
1
علی اصغر دهقانی سعدی
ira.dehghani@yahoo.com
2
فرزاد گرامی شیرازی
3
خودشیفتگی یک ساختار شخصیتی است که میتواند قضاوت مدیران از احتمال نتایج گوناگون را تحت تأثیر قرار دهد؛ زیرا طبق مطالعات اخیر مشاهدهشده است که خودشیفتگی در بین مدیران نقشی حیاتی در انجام فعالیتهای مرتبط با مدیریت سود و نمایش عملکرد مالی مطلوب دارد. هدف اصلی پژوهش حاضر بررسی تجربی تأثیر خودشیفتگی مدیران بر مدیریت سود و عملکرد مالی شرکتهای پذیرفتهشده در بورس اوراق بهادار تهران با استفاده از نمونهی آماری، شامل 624 مشاهدهی (سال-شرکت) برای بازه زمانی 1393-1382 است. پس از تجزیهوتحلیلهای آماری صورت گرفته با استفاده از فن معادلات ساختاری، نتایج حاصل از فرضیههای پژوهش بیانکنندهی از آن است که رابطهای مستقیم و معنادار بین خودشیفتگی مدیران و شاخصهای مرتبط با مدیریت سود و عملکرد مالی وجود دارد. به سخنی دیگر، مشاهده شد به هراندازه که مدیران از خودشیفتگی بالاتری برخوردار باشند برای نمایش عملکرد مالی مطلوب در کوتاهمدت به ذینفعان، بیشتر به سمتوسوی فعالیتهای مرتبط با مدیریت سود سوق پیدا خواهند کرد.
Introduction Narcissism as a personality characteristic has some indications such as influence of personal wishes, requesting others to answer, and cognitive bias. Narcissism of managers may have some effects on organizational consequences through the impact on managers` decisions in different fields such as strategy, structure and recruitment. Obviously, narcissism compared with other personal characteristics make managers do activities in order to seek the attention of others that subsequently affects the performance of the organization. According to recent studies, it is argued that narcissism has a vital role in earnings management activities and ideal financial performance exhibition. In this respect, the main goal of this research is to conduct an empirical study of the impact of managers’ narcissism on earnings management and financial performance of listed companies of Tehran Stock Exchange. Research Questions or hypotheses The research hypotheses are as follows: First main hypothesis: CEO Narcissism has a significant positive effect on earning management. First subsidiary hypothesis: CEO narcissism has a significant positive effect on discretionary revenues. Second subsidiary hypothesis: CEO narcissism has a significant positive effect on discretionary accruals. Second main hypothesis: CEO narcissism has a significant positive effect on financial performance. First subsidiary hypothesis: CEO narcissism has a significant positive effect on ROA ratio. Second subsidiary hypothesis: CEO narcissism has a significant positive effect on PEG ratio. Methodology This study is an ex-post research with a quasi-experimental design. The sample consists of 52 companies listed in Tehran Stock Exchange during 2004-2015. SPSS software, structure equation modelling (SEM), and Image J were used for preparing the data and statistical analysis, respectively. Results Statistical analysis using structural equation techniques shows that there is a significant positive relation between managers’ narcissism and earnings management and financial performance indicators. In other words, it was seen that in giving ideal financial performance declaration to stakeholder, more narcissism in managers leads to more tendency to earnings management.
https://jaa.shirazu.ac.ir/article_4052_0108966cb0e699813556b2b67e9a8e46.pdf
مالی رفتاری
خودشیفتگی مدیران
مدیریت سود
عملکرد مالی
معادلات ساختاری
Keywords: Behavioral Finance
CEO Narcissism
Earnings Management
Financial Performance
SEM-PLS
per
پیشرفتهای حسابداری
2008-9988
2716-9626
2017-02-19
8
2
151
189
10.22099/jaa.2017.4055
4055
Research Paper
تأثیر کاهش دادهها با استفاده از تحلیل عاملی بر دقت مدلهای پیشبینی ورشکستگی
Data reduction influence on the accuracy of prediction failure company models
مریم گوارا
1
محمود معین الدین
mahmoudmoein@gmail.com
2
رامین عبقری
3
هدف از این پژوهش تعیین الگوهایی با استفاده از نسبتهای مالی برای بالا بردن توان تصمیمگیری استفادهکنندگان از صورتهای مالی در پیشبینی ورشکستگی شرکتها است. در این پژوهش از 55 نسبت مالی پرکاربرد استفادهشده و با استفاده از تحلیل عاملی اکتشافی به 12 عامل تبدیل شده است. سپس با استفاده از مدل لوجیت و شبکههای عصبی صحت پیشبینی ورشکستگی با استفاده از 12 عامل بهدستآمده، موردبررسی قرارگرفته است. جامعهی آماری شامل دو گروه، 40 شرکت ورشکسته و 82 شرکت غیر ورشکسته، است. اطلاعات استفادهشده مربوط به دورهی زمانی 1393-1387 است و نتیجههای پژوهش حاکی از آن است که 12 عامل بهدستآمده با بهرهگیری از هر دو مدل، دارای توان بالایی در پیشبینی ورشکستگی شرکتها است و نیز الگوی مبتنی بر شبکهی عصبی دارای بالاترین دقت است.
Dr. Ramin Abghari*** Introduction The main goal of providing financial information is to improve the ability of decision makers to make financial and economic decisions. Therefore, the accuracy of the information provided increases the possibility of the accuracy of decisions. Understand and predict the likelihood of bankruptcy and attempt to improve these models has been the most important financial concern of decision-makers over the past decade being the subject of extensive researches conducted by financial and accounting researchers. In our country this subject has always attracted the attention of researchers. Previous studies used different models and techniques to predict bankruptcy, but the constant technological changes and economic developments on one hand, and the complexity of the business environment in the country due to economic sanctions on the other hand have faced durability of existing companies with a serious threat and thus the necessity to provide appropriate models and use new techniques for accurate prediction of corporate bankruptcies have doubled in Iran. Accordingly, it is necessary to carry out more intense scientific research in the field. Thus, the current paper aims to explore new bankruptcy models that fit Iran economic environment using factor analysis techniques, neural network and logit. Research Hypothesis To predict the bankruptcy of companies accepted in Tehran Stock Exchange Market, we use analysis factor as a data reduction method. In this study we examined the accuracy of prediction failure models with these factors. The Following hypothesis can be made in this regard: 1) Exploratory factor utilizes the logit model's ability to predict bankruptcy. 2) Exploratory factor utilizes neural networks, have the ability to predict bankruptcy. 3) Neural networks have higher ability than logit model in recognition of bankruptcy companies. Methods This is an applied EX- post factor correlational study. This research consisted of firms listed in Tehran Stock Exchange during the period from 2008 to 2015. Accordingly, a list of companies has been prepared to study including 40 bankrupt ones that were subject to Article 141 of the commercial code and article 41 of stock exchange directions. It also should be noted that using the information related to six years before bankruptcy for each company required them to be studied during the periods from 2008 to 2015. Then we used Q.Tobin to select 82 companies that are not bankrupt. We used 55 financial ratio and analysis factor to reduction data (12 factor). Dependent variable: the probability of bankruptcy of a firm; zero for bankrupt companies and one for others. Independent variables:12 Factors Extraction of 55 financial ratios. Results In this study, 55 financial ratios were reduced to 12 factors by factor analysis, so that each factor contained factor loads of variables. Then, it was reviewed by using logit and neural network. In addition, Q.tobin’s criteria was used to unbankrupt companies & article 141 of commercial code and article 41 of stock exchange directions to select bankrupt companies. To analyze data, SPSS 23 & MATLAB softwares were used as results were determined by comparing. Exploratory factors have a high capability in predicting bankrupt companies. In this respect, both models enjoyed high accuracy. As a whole, neural network method has high accuracy in classified companies. Thus, in both models, the highest accuracy is dedicated to data about a year before the base year. Discussion and Conclusion The findings show that the use of factor analysis to convert various financial ratios to several homogeneous factors and the use of neural network techniques and logit for data analysis improve the ability of models to predict corporate bankruptcy. Therefore, to determine and estimate companies bankruptcy, it is suggested the investors, including potential investors and financial analyzers use this techniques, variables and used models in this study. Using the neural network model is more emphasized by researchers, of course. To review the ongoing concern of companies' activity auditors can also use above-mentioned models. With the help of results and presented model in current article, banks and other financial and credit institutions as well as creditors in general can examine the decision on granting the loan to the companies, especially companies with consecutive & accumulated losses. Moreover, they can make decisions that are more reasonable as well as prevent wasting their capitals. *** Assistant Professor, Department of Textile, Islamic Azad University, Yazd Branch Yazd, Iran.
https://jaa.shirazu.ac.ir/article_4055_9aa2d770a088b1c2c0b65495516ba26c.pdf
نسبتهای مالی
ورشکستگی
تحلیل عاملی
مدل لوجیت
شبکههای عصبی
Keywords: Financial Ratios
Bankruptcy
Factor Analysis
Logit Model
Neural Network
per
پیشرفتهای حسابداری
2008-9988
2716-9626
2017-02-19
8
2
191
223
10.22099/jaa.2017.4056
4056
Research Paper
بررسی مدیریت سود برای جلوگیری از گزارش زیان و کاهش سود و کاربرد نظریهی چشمانداز برای تشریح انگیزههای آن
An investigation of earnings management to avoid losses and earnings decreases and the implementation of Prospects
Theory to explain its motives
غلامحسین مهدوی
ghmahdavi@rose.shirazu.ac.ir
1
عباس رضالویی
2
چکیده در سالیان اخیر با توجه به مشکلات استفاده از اقلام تعهدی برای بررسی مدیریت سود برخی نویسندگان رویکرد توزیع سود خالص1 را برای بررسی مدیریت سود مطرح کردهاند. در این رویکرد با بررسی توزیع فراوانی سود گزارششده حول یک آستانهی2 مشخص، هرگونه الگوی غیرعادی دلالت بر مدیریت سود خواهد داشت. در پژوهش حاضر از این رویکرد در بررسی مدیریت سود برای جلوگیری از گزارش زیان و جلوگیری از کاهش سود در بورس اوراق بهادار تهران و در دورهی زمانی 5 ساله 1392-1388 استفاده شده است. هم­چنین کاربرد نظریهی چشمانداز3 برای تشریح انگیزههای این نوع مدیریت سود نیز بررسی شد. یافتههای پژوهش حاکی از این است که مدیریت سود برای جلوگیری از گزارش زیان در بورس اوراق بهادار تهران وجود دارد. با اینحال شواهدی مؤید مدیریت سود برای جلوگیری از کاهش سود بهدست نیامد. هم­چنین شواهد بهدستآمده نشان داد که میتوان از نظریهی چشمانداز بهمنظور تشریح دلایل مدیریت سود برای جلوگیری از گزارش زیان استفاده کرد.
Introduction Accounting earnings are viewed as the premier information item provided in financial statements. Earnings are widely used as a key performance indicator of business success. Failure to meet or beat market expectations results in adverse consequences for the firm. Managers are, therefore, concerned about reporting an earnings number that meets or exceeds market expectations. Three research designs were commonly used in the earnings management literature: those based on aggregate accruals, those based on specific accruals and those based on the distribution of earnings (McNichols, 2000). As Burgstahler and Dichev (1997) suggest the earnings distribution approach investigates the statistical feature of earnings distribution to discover any abnormal patterns. These studies consider the behavior of earnings around a specific threshold to examine whether or not the frequency distribution of earnings above or below the threshold is smooth. In this paper, we use earnings distribution approach (EDA) to investigate whether firms manage reported earnings. This paper has focused on two earnings targets, namely (1) reporting profits, or ‘positive earnings’, (2) reporting results that improve upon last year’s performance. Our next question is related to the incentives of firms to manage earnings. We examine the capability of prospect theory to explain the motivation of this type of earnings management. If the preferences of the stakeholders are consistent with the prospect theory, then the manager has an incentive to report earnings that exceed the threshold, or the reference point, such as zero earnings levels or zero earnings changes, to obtain more rewards. Research Hypotheses Based on the theoretical literature and the conducted studies, research hypotheses were developed as follows: Primary Hypotheses 1- Earnings are managed to avoid losses. 2- Earnings are managed to avoid earnings decreases. Secondary Hypotheses 1- In the case of earnings management to avoid losses, zero scaled earnings is the reference point corresponding to prospect theory 2- In the case of earnings management to avoid earnings decrease, zero scaled earnings change is the reference point corresponding to prospect theory Methods In this research, our data were obtained from the Iranian database of Tehran Stock Exchange (Rah Avard Novin). The sample was selected from the period 2009-2013. We investigate two earnings variables. One is earnings level and the other is earnings change. For the earnings level variable, we used 908 firm-year observations and for the earnings change variable, there are 917 firm-year observations. We used annual net earnings to measure first threshold, which is avoiding losses and annual net earnings changes to measure second threshold, which is avoiding earnings decreases. The earnings observations are drawn from a broad range of firm sizes and are therefore scaled. The earnings variable is scaled by beginning-of-the-year market value of common equity. We present two types of evidence to determine whether earnings management leads to avoiding earnings decreases and losses. First, we present graphical evidence in the form of histograms of the pooled cross-sectional empirical distributions of scaled earnings changes and levels of earnings. Second, we investigate the significance of any irregularities around the zero point via Burgstahler and Dichev statistical method. Results The results of this research show that at a confidence level of 95%, earnings are managed to avoid losses. On the other words, we find that more firms than expected report small positive earnings in the Tehran Stock Exchange. However, there is no evidence to support that earnings are managed to avoid earnings decrease. Moreover, the findings show that the prospect theory can be used to explain the reasons and motives of earnings management to avoid losses. Discussion and Conclusion This paper provides compelling empirical evidence that earnings are managed to avoid losses. Earnings distributions show unexpectedly high frequencies of observations above the zero scaled earnings and unexpectedly low frequencies of observations below the zero scaled earnings. In addition, findings show that Kahneman and Tversky’s ‘prospect theory’ provide possible explanation for such behavior. From a psychological perspective, prospect theory postulates that decision-makers derive value from gains and losses with respect to a reference point, rather than from absolute levels of wealth. This captures the notion that losses are more displeasing than the equivalent gain. Thus, individuals derive the highest value when wealth moves from a loss to a gain relative to reference points. Firms above the earnings threshold are found to be risk averters while firms below the earnings threshold are found to be risk lovers. However, the study has several limitations. The earnings distribution approach does not capture the magnitude of earnings management. Furthermore, it does not specify the methods by which earnings are managed.
https://jaa.shirazu.ac.ir/article_4056_f8a4d7049f349d2d212cf17797ce2ad5.pdf
واژه های کلیدی: جلوگیری از کاهش سود
جلوگیری از گزارش زیان
رویکرد توزیع سود
مدیریت سود
نظریهی چشمانداز
Keywords: Avoid Losses
Avoid Earnings Decrease
Earning Distribution Approach
Earnings Management
Prospect Theory